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"Severe warning..." The frequency of severe wildfires is accelerating thanks to climate change!


"Severe warning..."

The frequency of severe wildfires is

accelerating thanks to climate change!

Climate change has sharply increased the risk of

rapidly spreading wildfires, according to a study conducted in California

which offers prevention classes after recent disasters in Canada, Greece and Hawaii.

Scientists at the Breakthrough Institute

a nonprofit think tank

  • found that human-induced global warming increased
  • the frequency of "severe" wildfires on average by 25%
  • compared to the pre-industrial era, in a study published in Nature.

By studying a series of

  • fires from 2003 to 2020, they used machine learning to analyse
  • the relationship between high average temperatures
  • drought conditions and the fastest-spreading fires 

those burning more than 10,000 acres (4,000 hectares) per day.

  • In some partially dry conditions
  • global warming has pushed the region beyond
  • the main thresholds, making severe fires far more likely.

In very dry conditions, the effect was less.

Violent bushfire season

  • The risk could increase on average by 59% by the end of
  • the century under a "low-emission" scenario
  • where global warming is limited to 1.8 degrees Celsius
  • above pre-industrial levels, and up to 172% at high levels.

The Earth's surface temperature has already increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius.

Using data from recorded fires

  • researchers measured the likelihood of
  • a particular fire becoming a "severe" fire.
  • They then used computer models to calculate

the extent to which post-industrial temperature rises affected this risk.

The study controlled variables such as rainfall

  1. wind and absolute humidity
  2. and researchers warned that changes in these variables
  3. could increase the risk of global warming.

The publication

followed a summer of wildfires that killed

at least 115 people in Hawaii and forced 200 thousand from their homes in Canada.

Greece is battling what European Union officials have described

as the bloc's largest ever wildfire on a 10-kilometre front. 20 people were killed.

A United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

  • 2022 report on forest fires said that
  • they had become more common because of the hottest

not traditionally vulnerable to them.

The results could indicate precautions on power lines and indicate where surveillance and awareness campaigns and the deployment of

firefighting resources should be focused.

  • Other forest fire experts said that awareness of
  • fire risks would become increasingly important
  • for authorities and even holidaymakers.

In a separate briefing by forest fire specialists on

Wednesday unrelated to the study, Andrew Sullivan of

Australia's national science agency CSIRO said spending typically

"tends" to respond to wildfires with insufficient funds allocated to prevent them.

There was :

a "global need to rebalance expenditure to improve

risk mitigation measures", such as vegetation management and fire risk forecasting.