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Under Pressure from Trump
Hungary May Take a Decision in Favor of Ukraine
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the European arena has been witnessing ongoing political and diplomatic tensions, most notably the divided stance within the European Union toward supporting Kyiv.
While most European countries rushed to align with the United States
by providing massive financial and military aid to Ukraine, Hungary
has maintained :
- a more reserved position
- making it a frequent target of
- criticism both in Europe and the U.S.
However
new signs are emerging that Budapest may shift its traditional stance
this time under direct pressure from former U.S. President
and Republican
candidate Donald Trump, who is trying to play an influential role in
the Ukrainian file as part of his race back to the White House.
Hungary’s Different Position
Since the beginning of the war, Hungary has stood out among its European partners by adopting a policy closer to neutrality. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his close ties with Moscow, has repeatedly refused to send weapons to Ukraine or even allow arms shipments to pass through Hungarian territory.
He has also consistently called for ending European sanctions on Russia, arguing they hurt the EU’s economy more than they affect the Kremlin.
This position has placed Budapest in political isolation within the European Union and exposed it to sharp criticism from European leaders, who described Hungary’s policy as “serving Russia’s interests more than supporting Europe’s unity.”
Trump Steps In
In recent weeks, reports have intensified about communications between Trump and Orbán, particularly after their meeting in the United States during the summer. Trump, who seeks to capitalize on any foreign policy file to strengthen his electoral chances, has begun indirectly pressuring Hungary to show more flexibility toward Ukraine, even through symbolic steps.
Sources suggest that
Trump sees persuading Orbán as a double opportunity:
on one hand :
he can present himself as a leader capable of influencing Moscow
friendly Europeans;
on the other hand, he can use Hungary’s shift as proof to American voters that
- he can play the role of a “peace broker” in the Ukraine crisis
- unlike President Joe Biden’s administration, which has been accused of
- prolonging the war through continuous military support for Kyiv.
Possible Shifts
A Hungarian shift does not necessarily mean that
Budapest will abandon its strong ties with Moscow.
Instead :
it could be a carefully calculated move to ease European and American pressure. Hungary may agree to pass a new EU aid package for Ukraine
or partially lift its objections to supporting Kyiv, without fully engaging in
a confrontational stance against Russia.
This scenario appears most realistic, especially as Orbán seeks to balance between maintaining much-needed EU economic support and preserving his privileged relations with Moscow, which supplies Hungary with energy at favorable prices.
European and U.S. Dimensions
- If Hungary does take a decision in favor of Ukraine
- it would be considered a significant gain for the European Union
- as it would remove one of the internal disputes that Russia has exploited to
- It would also strengthen
- Washington’s position as it works tirelessly to
- preserve international consensus against Moscow.
For Trump
any such move would immediately be translated into his election campaign.
He would showcase himself
as a leader who can influence European leaders more effectively than the current Biden administration, framing it as a “personal success” that paves the way for a potential settlement of the war if he returns to the White House.
Will the Equation Change?
Despite these developments :
the most important question remains:
will Hungary’s shift change the balance of power in the Ukrainian war?
- Most likely, it will not directly impact the battlefield
- but it will carry significant political implications.
- Even a partial retreat by Budapest from its absolute rejection of
EU support for
- Ukraine would signal that
- Moscow is losing one of its strongest
- “friendly voices” within the European bloc.
Ultimately
Orbán seems to be walking a fine line between Western pressure
and his country’s ties with Russia. With Trump entering the scene
he may find himself compelled to make carefully measured concessions.The coming weeks will reveal whether Hungary will indeed take a step toward Kyiv, or whether it will continue its balancing act between East and West.